Tuesday, November 10, 2009

American Culture: Why Do We Pretend?

Photo credit: Does Anyone Ever Actually Read This by sweens308


As a culture, we pretend that any number of completely useless things are necessary:

1. That it matters if we check the little box on the long contract that we don't read and couldn't understand if we did.
2. That a sign saying "small parts; choking hazard" is required on every toy even though kids play with pebbles, pieces of wood, dirt, dust mice, and lost buttons all day long.
3. That a lawnmower needs a label that tells you not to put your hands or feet under it.
4. Saying "fine, great, etc." every time someone asks how we are doing, even if we are miserable.
5. Asking people how they are doing when we really don't want to know.
6. We bend the law, but others break it.
7. A kid with a joint should be punished about the same as a guy who burglarizes your house.
8. An executive who steals 10,000 peoples livelihoods should be treated far more leniently than a murderer who takes a life.
9. Signing a contract makes us safer from people who want to slack off or be deceitful.
10. We are doing our best, but so many others just aren't trying very hard.
11. That it matters how nice our watch is or isn't (insert shoes, clothes, house, car, etc. etc.)
10. We don't have time to do important stuff when we have time to watch Dancing with the Stars.
11. Faster is always better.
12. We aren't going to die any time soon.
13. Bigger is always better (Big Gulp, gross)!
14. People who get sick or weak must not have taken good care of themselves.
15. It's o.k. to break our most solemn vows, and then jump all over the kid who gives you a cheeseburger instead of a Big Mac.
16. We can tell a lot about people by the color of their skin.
17. Having lots of money makes us "safe".
18. Having lots of stuff makes us "happy".
19. Getting a newspaper every day is OK, but using paper napkins destroys the environment.
20. That a person's life is more valuable than any amount of money, when we let others starve for want of a few bucks.
21. Kids now are worse than kids were when we were kids.
22. Alcohol is a safe legal drug, but all those other drugs would be a disaster if they were legalized.
23. Nothing really bad is about to happen.
24. Nothing really good is about to happen.
25. Life will pretty much go along as it always has.

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Blue Sky, Storm Sky, Gray Sky

photo credit: Who painted the Sky by bbjee


Two days ago the sky was clear. My spirit soared. All was vivid. Children ran and my heart was with them. Peace. All was well. Pain and sorrow took a break. Particles of light flooded the atmosphere. So many that the air couldn't hold them, and turned blue trying. When ink black night moved in, it had to wrestle day to the ground, choking it until day bled a rainbow sunset and expired.

I can welcome the storm blowing in today. A capricious wind wreaks havoc among the leaves. Clouds scud, fleeing and yet gathering. Rain drops are thrown against the windows. Danger hovers near. The probability of sudden change. Possibilities abound.

But then will come the gray clouds. Drifts of semidarkness, piling from horizon to horizon. They will twist slowly, strangling a dripping world, extinguishing the light despite the sun’s heroic efforts. Stillness, but no peace. No color.

Doom will bide its time.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Will Gold Reach $2000 Per Ounce?

photo credit: Contando Dinheiro by Jeff Belmonte

The bad new is that it already did. Gold last peaked at about $850/oz in 1980. Adjusted for inflation, that equals well over $2000 in 2008 dollars (much more according to some measures). Anyone who bought gold in 1980 and has faithfully kept it somewhere safe, has lost at least 50% of their investment if they sell now.

Some may say that is unfair. I have picked an absolute peak from historical data. Why not pick something like the 1983 low of $300/oz? OK, let's do that. Adjusted for inflation according to the Consumer Price Index (which may be conservative), that means we invested $690 2008 dollars.
So with gold at 1000 dollars per oz this year, we made $310. Break out the champagne. Oh, wait a minute, if in 1985 we had bought $300 dollars worth of 8% treasury bonds, we would now have about $1900 in 2008 dollars. We would have made about 4 times as much with the bonds.

Of course, were these calculations widely published, folks could find any number of ways to nitpick them. Math was never my strongest subject. But they would be missing the point. If I get to look back and choose my starting point, I can make most investments (gold, stocks, bonds, real estate) look wonderful. However, when I invest today, I don't know where things will be in 25 years. I am kidding myself if I think I do. And to those who say they wouldn't wait 25 years to cash in, I ask when will you cash in. When will gold (or whatever) reach that wonderful peak price in the next couple of decades? No one knows that either. So one must guess when it is a good time to sell.

I haven't even talked about what happens if you need to draw some income during the term of your investment. Things get much more complicated.

Can't we look at long term trends and extrapolate? Yes, but it will be small comfort when the year to year fluctuations are large. It will always be a wild ride.

Here is one estimate of how gold has performed over the past 400 years:


My precision calibrated eyeball estimates a long term trend of zero interest. Of course, that may be a lot better than this estimate of gold over 600 years (sorry my eyeball can't extrapolate from this):


My apologies to the author of this chart, I can't seem to find my original source so that I can give credit. I will try again soon.

What am I saying? Is there no way that we can judge what is the best investment right now for any given person ? Exactly, there is no way. I comfort myself with all sorts of conventional wisdom, but I can't see that any of it can be trusted.

However, I have found one reference that seems to be holding up very well over the centuries:

1Now listen, you rich people, weep and wail because of the misery that is coming upon you. 2Your wealth has rotted, and moths have eaten your clothes. 3Your gold and silver are corroded. Their corrosion will testify against you and eat your flesh like fire. You have hoarded wealth in the last days. 4Look! The wages you failed to pay the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord Almighty. 5You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves in the day of slaughter.]" style="font-size: 0.75em; line-height: 0.5em; " 6You have condemned and murdered innocent men, who were not opposing you.

James 5:1-6 (New International Version)

How we use what we have is infinitely more important than how we will get more.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Why Do Kids Take Drugs?

photo credit: Your Face on Drugs by azrainman

There will never be a simple answer to this question. Very likely there are many factors and some play a bigger role than others.

However, I strongly believe that scare tactics don't work to reduce drug use. I talked about that a bit in my post reviewing the documentary American Meth.

Today I saw a piece of research that found that scare campaigns may actually increase drug usage. Of course, since the research supported my point of view, I was quick to give it credence.
However, based on my own experiences, I think I have some idea of why scare campaigns could actually backfire.

If a young person is looking for excitement, they certainly don't find it by following advice from authority figures about how to be safe.

At 18 I had heard all sorts of lurid tales of what drug use could do to a person. The first time someone offered me a chance to try marijuana, I had a strong sense that it might be dangerous.
Danger did not deter me. I think it drew me in. I wanted to do something scary.

Smoking marijuana was scary in 1968 for several reasons. I had been warned that using it could lead to more dangerous drugs. Also, marijuana was illegal in Pennsylvania. I knew that some kids actually wound up in jail for simple possession. Consider, this was an era when a young man sporting long hair was considered to be a dangerous rebel by the mainstream. A number of folks were convinced that sex, drugs, and rock and roll heralded the end of civilization. I hadn't had sex yet, but I sure wanted to. I loved rock and roll. I was already two thirds of the way toward being a major social menace. I was almost compelled to explore that last third.

The high I got those first few times was mildly amusing. When I did not immediate become unhinged and start looking for heroin, I decided that all the warnings I had heard were nonsense. I was actually a bit disappointed that the drug seemed so tame.

I did wind up progressing to more addictive drugs in the decade following that early experimentation. I don't think it was the power of marijuana that led me on to new experiments. On the contrary, I wanted to up the ante. To see what it would be like to do something truly dangerous. I tried LSD and found that it was anything but tame. I snorted cocaine and felt like superman. Ditto for methamphetamine. I tried various opiates. Needles scared me too much (mostly because they hurt when you stick them in). So I decided needles really were for losers. That was pretty much the only boundary line I knew: if it hurts too much, don't do it.

I knew there were other, more socially approved ways of achieving a thrill. However, it would be a long time before I had a chance for international travel, rock climbing, or diving off high cliffs. The drugs were immediately available. It was actually easier for me to buy marijuana rather than beer.

By the time I was a sophomore, I had befriended any number of drug users and even drug dealers. The boundary between the two is vague. One quick way to get money for more drugs is to sell part of what you have for more than you paid. I liked the idea that I was part of an underground. A dealer fearing possible arrest asked me to store some hashish and hundreds of hits of acid for him. I did so. I thought it very clever that no one would ever suspect Kent, the clean cut engineering student, would have a small fortune in drugs in his desk drawer.

It is quite possible that by now you wondered, "WHAT WAS HE THINKING!". The answer is simple. I wasn't thinking. I wanted thrills and this was a quick and easy way to get some.

Remember those scare tactics? They are essentially an incentive for many young folks to try drugs.

Eventually I learned that drug use really did have serious negative effects. It took more than a decade for me to arrive at that conclusion. Meanwhile, I wasted a lot of time. I probably injured myself, and I was passing lots of money on to some very unsavory people.

I wish I had known that there really are a lot of positive ways to get thrills. I'm not talking about rock climbing or motorcycles. I came to love the thrill of accomplishment. I loved the thrill of marrying and starting a family.

Eventually I realized that the biggest thrill of all is knowing God and inviting Him to make me more like Jesus. The irony is that at 18 I would have thought that would be one of the most boring and completely foolish things I could do.

Well, I got part of that right. I am a fool for Christ.


Monday, October 05, 2009

How Much Do We Care

Photo Credit: Food crisis in the Horn of Africa by IFRC

I read an article recently that claimed an expenditure of $60 billion dollars on basic health care and education would be enough to effect an enormous change in child mortality rates and eliminate extreme poverty and hunger.

If that is true, it would amount to about .1% of the World Gross National Product. If the estimate is 10 times too small, it would really take 1%. It would seem that the cost of eliminating the worst of the world's poverty is not an economic issue. If we could all give up 1% of our luxuries, or if we could all be 1 % more productive in our work, there should be plenty for everyone.

I don't think most of us can even measure our personal wealth accurately to plus or minus 1%. And certainly not to plus or minus .1%. Fluctuations in real estate prices, stock prices, or even the value of goods are enough to hide a per cent. The recent hiccup in the U.S. economy wiped out about $8 trillion dollars of personal wealth (or at least, of our wealth "on paper").

Out of all the things I care about, do I care about starving people and sick children with at least 1% of my capacity for caring? I'd like to think so. In fact, I'd like to think that most folks can easily muster 1% of their caring towards such issues.

Things look easier on the macro scale. It has been said that the devil is in the details, and that certainly seems appropriate here. I can think of an example close to home that indicates that more than money is required. A lot more. I volunteer at an outlet for free kids clothes. We have a selection of free adult clothes nearby. We are across the hall from the Food Bank and Gleaners. They provide lots of free food. Those are good things, but I have no illusion that free food and clothes means that all kids in our town will be warm and well fed. There are lots of other problems besides the material resources: substance abuse, depression, dysfunctional families, and the list goes on and on.

Sin is the big obstacle. It seems that worldwide, men in particular are snared by alcohol, gambling, and prostitution, just to name a few. Fighting wastes lots of energy at both the personal and the national level. Substantial changes in those sorts of behavior could have a huge impact.

Of course, we try to engineer changes in behavior with laws, taxes, and social and cultural strictures. It is rather disheartening to see just how ineffective things like laws against drug use have been. Ditto for taxes on cigarettes and disgrace for public figures discovered to be involved with prostitution.

I will continue to give some of my resources toward eradicating some of the worlds nastiest problems. I will vote for laws and support positions that may have some effect in changing behavior. However, I think these are the least of my contribution.

I am convinced that by far the biggest impact I can have is by seeking to be more like Christ. And let it be clear that I don't believe I have the will or the strength to change myself much. More and more I see how dependent I am on God for those changes. This is spiritual warfare at ground level. It is personal and immediate. I don't have to wait for anyone else to do anything.

I simply have to seek God and obey him.

If I don't do what I can, why would I expect others to do something?

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Doomsday

Why are doomsday scenarios so compelling? Each of us will end this life, sooner or later. It seems that most of us avoid dwelling overmuch upon our personal end. Yet even the remote prospect of dying en masse inflames our imaginations and sparks energetic conversations. That strikes me as a perverse delusion. The video below is rather dark, avoid watching it unless you are prepared to face some of your deepest fears. (It is only really feasible to watch it in full screen mode, so hit the little rectangular icon on the control bar at the bottom of the video)



Saturday, September 05, 2009

Why Are We So Busy?

Photo Credit: Who's the Boss by Alex E. Proimos



I seldom meet anyone who says they have too much time on their hands. When I do, they are usually disabled by injury, disease, or age related deterioration. They are physically or mentally unable to "stay busy".

Busy people almost always seem to believe that their busy schedules have been forced upon them. "Things are crazy right now" they may say. They talk about bosses, spouses, or kids who have loaded them with obligations. "I have too much on my plate" .

I find it strange that such busy people find time to watch a lot of television. They cruise the Internet. They have time to stand in a hallway or a street corner and talk at length about their busy schedule. These same people play games or watch games. They buy new music to listen too and books to read. They frequent craft stores or hobby shops seeking new projects. These same busy people go to movies, go window shopping, and camp, fish, or boat.

Yes, people work and take care of chores. The work allows them to own the TVs, pursue the hobbies, or buy the music. The money they earn enables them to buy houses and cars which require maintenance or inspire embellishments as varied as patios, wallpaper, or chrome plated wheels.

It is hard for me to believe, but I am sure that it is true: we want to be busy. We make choices that will ensure that we are busy. Although we say that we long for "down time", when we get that time, we are anxious until we find something to fill it. A trip. A puzzle book. A phone call.

I am speaking of American culture, which I know well. I have seen evidence of the same in parts of Europe and Asia. There may be cultures that have tranquillity and rest at their core, but I have not experienced them.

We choose to be busy, even as we complain about our busyness. We consistently err on the side of scheduling too many activities rather than too few.

Why?

At most, I can speak for myself. I am aware of a fear that my life has little significance. I harbor the suspicion that many others are making better use of their time. When I load up my schedule, it is a futile attempt to assuage anxiety about who I am and what I have accomplished.

Alternatives are available. I seek to spend more time listening to others. I also hope to quiet myself enough to hear the still, small voice of God. As I focus on others and trust God, the anxiety lessens.

We have come to revere folks who can pull themselves up by their own bootstraps. And those folks are non existent. It would be the equivalent of reaching down and pulling both my feet off the ground. Try as hard as I might, I will never move even a fraction of an inch higher.

However, I perceive that it could keep me very busy.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Contentment in a Sin Cursed World

Photo credit: Selfie by exfordy


A child dies of hunger every few seconds and I am content.

The sentence shocks because contentment is misunderstood to be complacency. Complacency means being unmoved when evil is revealed. Sadly, it is far too easy for me to be complacent. I pray to God for compassion. I want to overcome evil. I do not seek to be complacent.

I am content when I am satisfied with what I have. I am complacent when I am satisfied with what others have.

I want every person on the planet to have wholesome food and water. I pray that they will have comfortable clothing and shelter. I long for peace and joy in every life.

I know I am content when I am thankful for the many good things in my life. I know I am complacent when I make no effort to help others enjoy good things.

Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor is a flawed notion. It depends too much on the thief's ability to discern how material wealth would be best distributed. Even a democratic approach to taking from the wealthy requires that the majority have a clear vision of who deserves what they have and who does not. It is all too easy for each of us to decide that what we have is "about right" and that if others have much more, they are rich. Furthermore, this sort of redistribution is focused on material goods. Those goods are necessary but never sufficient.

Giving is far more powerful than taking. I can give material goods. I can also give affection and encouragement. I can show patience and forgiveness. In short, I can love. Love conquers all.

I must not live my life insisting that others love more. Rather, I must realize that I do not love as I could. I can always give more. I can be more patient. I can forgive more readily.

God is love. I must seek to know God better so that I can love more and be content with less.

I have much to learn and much to do. May God grant me wisdom and strength.

Saturday, August 08, 2009

Culture and Fashion; Good and Evil


Sumo in Hawaii by hellochris


A four hundred pound man in an industrial strength thong bows with his back to you. At a park with your kids, you might think about calling the cops. But at a Sumo match, it's simply a memorable moment in a grand spectacle which includes the little guy in a bathrobe and pointy hat. It's a glimpse of Japanese culture and centuries old fashions. It's as if you made a little hole in time and space and peeked through it. Hopefully you will not be offended. Instead, pat your self on the back for embracing diversity.
cellphone gladiator by newlow
Now walk out of that match and chuckle a bit as you see a gladiator in full regalia pausing for a cell phone chat and smoke break.

Nice. Another colorful outfit and glimpse of another culture. But when you walk around the corner. A still warm corpse in a pool of blood indicates that the gladitorial reinactment included a fight to the death. Authentic, but unacceptable. This time you will call the cops.

But wait, are you simply narrow minded? Isn't this just another look through a tear in the space-time continuum? You have read about gladiators. You have seen movies depicting their fights to the death. This time it is simply a lot more real.

I doubt you would dither. You'd call 911. Some aspects of another culture are o.k. You can put up with being mooned by a fat guy. But you wouldn't countenance homicide or even man-slaughter.
Is it colorful or is it criminal? It's a decision that we must make from time to time. Shorts and a tube top are colorful in California. They are criminal in Saudi Arabia. Add a veil to a Victorian woman's garb and she could walk unmolested in Riyadh. How can we know if there has been an evil change in culture or a benign fashion shift. Does it really depend on who you ask?


Alfred Stevens: In Memoriam photo by












The outfit below would bring a swarm of police in Riyadh. :

Mini Jupe by Carolco

Culture and fashion cannot dictate what is good and what is evil. Good and evil have to do with the state of your heart and not the particulars of your garb. Only God can see the true state of your heart and compare it to his own.

May God have mercy on us all when we presume to know the heart after only seeing the outfit. Time and relationship may reveal a bit more of a person's heart.

A glance never suffices.

Sunday, August 02, 2009

You Couldn't Make This Stuff Up

Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus Leucocephalus)by Savannah Grandfather


So a couple of dozen of us are sitting in a circle under the big blue sky, singing worship songs. As I look across at Barbara, a bald eagle swoops down to roost on a tree directly behind her. Some crows assault the eagle. Barbara runs along the riverside until she can spot the eagle flying away. A few minutes after she sits back down, a sparrow lands on a chair in our circle. Then it flits over and lands on Barbara's head. She flaps her arms wildly. Too bad says Juliana, our Brazilian friend, I pray everyday for a bird to land on my head and crap on it. It's very good luck in Brazil. Still, even just having a bird land on you is very good fortune. All this plus our brother, a doctor, tells us how he worked as a barker at a carnival when he was 10 (before he graduated to be snake man in the freak show). His dad died when he was four and he was eager to make some money. Later we all laughed as a four pound beef roast burst into flame on Rick's BBQ grill. He handles it just fine. I smell like wood smoke and haven't showered for a couple of days. But I am enjoying eating rice cooked by our pregnant Filipino friend while I wait for a slightly charred piece of Kielbasa and some potato chips. Then we all rolled up our tents and drove away.

I'm not making this up. You couldn't make this stuff up.