Friday, April 24, 2015

Degrees of Freedom

Degrees of Freedom

Part of my engineering education was to learn that objects can be described as having various degrees of freedom.  An ant crawling along a straight wire could be described as having one degree of freedom.  Crawling on a flat surface would give him two degrees of freedom.  And crawling around on a basketball gives him three degrees.  For further degrees of freedom the math gets a lot more complicated, as does our ability to develop a picture of what’s going on.

When we talk about political, economic, or social freedom, things also get pretty complicated.  My grandson asked me, “Why don’t we just give everyone all the stuff they want?”  I think he  was trying to figure out a way to prevent people from stealing.  Sadly, even assuming we had the means to give someone unlimited amounts of money, objects, or resources,  we might find that what they really wanted was to steal something.  I’ve seen stories of very wealthy shoplifters.  It is likely that saving money was not their primary objective, even if they thought it was.

Of course we have laws that we hope will make it clear when someone is free to take something and when they aren’t.  We have other laws to communicate what other sorts of behaviors are o.k. and what aren’t.   I saw a police officer tell a demonstrator that if she blew a soap bubble and it floated over and hit him, that he could arrest her for assault.  Of course it is true that you cannot send projectiles towards police without having a pretty darn good reason.  However, blowing him a kiss instead of blowing him a bubble would be on the safer side of the boundary set by that law.  Tossing a knife could clearly land you in jail.  As for the soap bubble, well the criminal justice system would have to sort out if it was a valid arrest and an offense worth a penalty.  Oliver Wendell Holmes is quoted as saying, "The right to swing my fist ends where the other man's nose begins."   I don’t want to nit pick what Justice Holmes had to say, but I am pretty sure that if I swing my fist within a millimeter of a policeman’s nose, I will have consequences to contend with, especially if the context is a confrontation.   Judgment would be required for soap bubbles, near miss punches, or even for a knife that slipped out of my hand while I was slicing a piece of pie for the officer.  That is precisely why we have judges.  It is also why video tapes or credible eye witnesses are nice to have, but don’t necessarily end an argument about what happened and how it should be dealt with.

Unfortunately, simple assault is often one of the easier offenses to judge.   We can up the ante quickly by changing the charge to assault with a deadly weapon (baseball bat, walking stick, hat pin?) or assault with intent to do serious bodily harm ( cracked skull, black eye, or bruised rib?).   Most of us can walk around feeling confident that we are operating well within our freedoms.  Even so, stuff happens.  I changed lanes and passed a police car, well within the speed limit.  However, in the officer’s mind I “cut him off”.  I guess he had intended to change lanes just as I passed him.  Too bad I didn’t guess his intent ahead of time, because he gave me a long, loud earful after pulling me over.  Then he told me I was such a loser that it wasn’t worth his time to write a ticket.  I didn’t follow his logic, but I just kept quiet anyway.

When police yell at you to stop, it is generally a good idea to stop.  However, you might be forgiven if you continued to move out of the way of an oncoming bus, and then stopped.  Beyond that we move into the realm of civil disobedience.  The cop says move, but  you are on public property, like the seat of a bus in the segregated south.  Rosa Parks decided she should not have to give up her seat (in the “colored section” of the bus) to a white passenger who had to stand. That’s civil disobedience. It had a lot of consequences.  These days she is seen far more as saint than sinner.  Sadly, I grew up in a time and place where the reverse was true.

Rosa probably knew she was pushing the limit when she said no to the bus driver that first asked her to move.  She surely knew she was in for a hard time when the bus driver got a cop.  Believe it or not, she was arrested and convicted.  The appeal process dragged on for over a year until  the U.S. supreme court decided that the segregation law she had broken was unconstitutional.  History has been defined as that which happened before you were born.  So for me, this is a current event (I was 5 years old), while for you it might be history.

Going back to my grandson, he might surmise that were we to eliminate all laws, we would eliminate all crime.  I suppose in a sense he is right.  However, crime free and peaceful aren’t necessarily the same thing.  One of my pet peeves is the saying “you can’t legislate morality”.  On the contrary, it is the only thing you can legislate.  What other reason could there be for a law besides an attempt to promote moral behavior?   Not only can you legislate morality, you ought to think long and hard about what is moral before legislating against it.  Passing a law  that black people must give up their seats to white people when the bus is full  would be an example of legislating immorality.  At least by standards these days in the U.S.  I can go along with the idea that one need not always legislate morality.  The problem is that morals change from person to person, but the law is intended to be the same for everyone.  So we need to be pretty choosy about what we commit to law.

Fortunately there are plenty of things that we can agree on as being both immoral and illegal.  Rape, murder, robbery, and a host of others.  Unfortunately, passing a law doesn’t mean that people will stop doing those things.  It only means that they can be arrested and given a penalty for doing them.  Agreeing on suitable penalties seems to be even harder than deciding on what should be against the law.  And again, judgment is required.  No law can spell things out so clearly that the exact same penalty would be suitable for every transgression of a given law.

So back to degrees of freedom.  We have lots of degrees of freedom when we operate way inside boundaries of law, morality, and customs.   How big that space is that we can easily operate within depend a great deal on the time and place where we live.   Fortunately, most of us can discern the safe space most of the time.  But for those who transgress, whether knowingly or not, big trouble can result.  There are a number of things that can interfere with a person’s ability to judge whether their behavior is acceptable.  Simple ignorance of local custom can be a problem.  Having a beer in Saudi Arabia might seem innocent enough to those with little knowledge geography.  Walking around naked is pretty common stuff in some parts of the world, not so much in others.   Even the country may not be the issue. I can get by with a Speedo at the pool, but not in a courtroom.

Degrees of freedom is too simple a descriptor for human behavior.  We are judged on direction, distance, intent, and more.  Americans in particular seem to think in terms of more freedom as better.  However, they are pretty quick to change their mind when the direction, distance, or intent of someone else’s actions annoy them.  A curmudgeon in my neighborhood legally discharges a firearm from time to time (I live in the country).  However, lately it seems that he is much more likely to pop one off when his neighbors walk closer to his property line than he likes.  This is a real, ongoing issue.  Not easily resolved.  And it is only one of many such things that come to mind when I think about people getting annoyed with one another.

I am a big fan of freedom.  But as they say, it comes at a price.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

What are we afraid of?

What Are We Afraid Of?

I know of a young couple and their child who were killed recently when a chunk of concrete fell off of a bridge and onto their car.  I will probably think about that the next few times I go through an underpass or tunnel, but it sure would be a waste of time to spend much energy on it.  I am going to die, and that might be how it happens, but it pretty clearly isn’t the most likely scenario.  But therein lies the rub, there is no most likely scenario for an individual. Probability only works for populations, not individuals.  The probability of 65 year old men dying of heart disease or cancer is way higher than the probability of being hit by concrete.  Nonetheless, for any single 65 year old man, just about anything might happen.  Accidents, murder, diseases, suicide, and snake bites each take their toll, and that is a very short sample of the available means for snuffing out a life.

So should we walk around afraid that something is going to happen?  I do.  And not just deadly stuff, also pretty minor stuff like losing my keys or getting lost during a trip.  Or I might worry that I will run out of money before I run out of life (that’s a pretty common one for us retired guys).   Will I die first, or will my wife.  There will be pain in each case, and no big bonus that I can see in either.

Looking a little deeper, I am basically afraid of being uncomfortable, especially if it is to the point of real suffering.  And yet, suffering is pretty much guaranteed in this life.  I am afraid of something that will almost certainly happen.   How does that help me?  I suppose it helps motivate me to take some precautions against some of the things that might contribute to a bad outcome. I could choose to drive like a maniac, drink heavily, eat until I am grossly obese, and make a habit of taunting people with bad tempers and a history of violence.  I might still get a chunk of concrete dropped on me before any of those foolish behaviors bore bitter fruit.   At age 19 I was very nearly eviscerated by a large plate of steel that I was attempting to drill a large hole in.  Another even larger chunk of steel slipped free of a clamp I was using to hoist it with a crane.  I made an instinctive motion to catch it, despite the fact it weighed a ton or more and would have squashed me like a bug.  Fortunately my second thoughts on the matter came to me very quickly.

We could say that we are afraid of things that could hurt us, but wouldn’t that be a pretty complete list of everything around us from drinking glasses to black holes?  In Singapore I was very nearly crushed by a bus simply because they drive on the left side of the road and I looked the wrong way before stepping off a curb.  A friend pulled me back just in time.  I was already pretty cautious about stepping in front of large, moving vehicles.  Habit mislead me that time, despite all those childhood admonitions to look both ways before crossing the street.

Since preemptive fear doesn’t seem to be much use, maybe we need to move toward what might be called mindful fear.  As we are in the moment and have a heightened awareness of all that is around us, we can quite rightly decide to be afraid of a charging grizzly bear or a careening drunk driver.  Hopefully the fear will prompt us to effective evasive action, although sometimes our choices may be few.   Perhaps what we call worry, anxiety, or fear of the future is really just a case of our minds devoting far too much energy trying to imagine appropriate responses to dangers that have not yet appeared, but might.   How much planning and preparation is enough?  When are we foolishly careless, and when are we absurdly cautious?

One measure I can think of is analogous to investing money.   I spend some time researching and deciding on the best move to make, and then I forget about it.  If the amount of time I spend doing that makes me too uncomfortable, I decide to spend less.  If I start having financial disasters or near misses, perhaps I should put a bit more energy into prevention.  Maybe not.  Even the experts didn’t see the financial crash of 2008 coming our way.

Of course I should trust God to work all things to good.  However, I am in for an ugly surprise if I take that to mean that he will keep me safe from all harm and exempt from all suffering.  I think  it is more a reassurance that no matter how bad things get, they will get better eventually.  Eventually is a pretty slippery word, but it is much better than never or maybe.

What am I afraid of?  Well, unfortunately, lots of things.  Way too many things.  And learning more about the world around me seems to open up even more opportunities to be afraid.  Clearly I need to devote adequate time to learn to effectively manage my fears.  I am asking God to help me.  I am making a real effort to use the brain he gave me to think through this stuff.  And I can see some choice irony  in being afraid that I am not doing enough to deal with fear.  So I think I will stop right here.

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

Opportunity

They say it only knocks once.  I don't believe that.  In fact I encounter so many opportunities so many times that I can let it paralyze me with indecision unless I find the will to take one and run with it.  The most important opportunities are those to be more like Christ.  Every time I speak, write, interact, buy, sell, speculate, cogitate, pick up or put down,   I have an opportunity to look for guidance from the Holy Spirit, and an opportunity to give heed to that guidance.  Every moment of every day of my life, both now and the hereafter, I have the opportunity to give glory to God and the opportunity to turn away from Him.  I don't need more opportunities.  I need the strength to make good choices.


God, give me grace to accept with serenity
the things that cannot be changed,
Courage to change the things
which should be changed,
and the Wisdom to distinguish
the one from the other.
Living one day at a time,
Enjoying one moment at a time,
Accepting hardship as a pathway to peace,
Taking, as Jesus did,
This sinful world as it is,
Not as I would have it,
Trusting that You will make all things right,
If I surrender to Your will,
So that I may be reasonably happy in this life,
And supremely happy with You forever in the next.
Amen.  

Reinhold Niebuhr

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Progress

Once I have a purpose, I want to make progress in fulfilling that purpose.  If my purpose were merely accumulating things or completing rituals, I would be able to track my progress rather easily.  Since my purpose is to love others, how can I know whether I am making progress?  One measure I use is this: love more.  Whatever I am doing in love, do some more.  Whether my efforts are really more or not seems to become clear when it gets harder to make the effort.  The bad stuff comes pretty easy: complaining, envying, grasping, lusting, and many more.   But when I am challenged to find new ways to show my love for someone, or when I am challenged to love someone that I find difficult, then I can be pretty sure I am making progress.  And it will only ever be progress, not culmination, in this life.  God can give me guidance when I hear him rightly.  God can convict me of sin when I am off track.  God can give me the courage to do harder stuff.  All I have to do is ask him, and have the faith that he can help me.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Purpose

 I want purpose.  I have purpose.  How can I serve my purpose?

When I say I want a purpose, I am thinking primarily of a reason for me to go on living, or perhaps, why am I alive at all?  I am not content with self gratification as a reason for living. Were I more comfortable than I typically am, perhaps I could be seduced into thinking that comfort was enough.  But I am not.  I live each day and most hours as a struggle.

As God's creation, I have purpose.  I am instructed to love God and to love my neighbor as myself.  I have gradually attained some understanding of what it means to love another person.  Listening to them.  Acknowledging them.  Giving to them.  Serving them.  Waiting for them.  Forgiving them.  Encouraging them.

I have gifts, skills, and time.  How much of these do I use to further my purpose, and how much do I squander on a foolish attempt to gratify my self?  Using 100% of my gifts, skills, and time is the goal.  I suspect that I use far less than that.  I ask God to help me move ahead, to improve, to grow, and to be at peace.

Help me Lord.  I am doomed to failure without you.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Six Decades and Counting


As a seven year old, one of my greatest ambitions was to own a pocket knife. My mom told me that I would have to wait until I was 10 to have that responsibility. I very clearly remember how I anguished over having to wait so long.

Today, I am sixty.

I tend to think in decades: I started work at HP in my twenties,, I was in my thirties when I first believed in Jesus, I was in my fifties when I finally found a psychiatrist who could help me.

What will I think of my sixties if I live to be 70 or 80?

- More and more I realize how important God, friends, and family are. All else seems to pale.
- I am at the start of a new career working as a peer specialist with folks who have struggled with mental health issues.
- I am finally beginning to understand what it means to "eat healthy".
- I rejoice in having a new knee that works so much better than my natural one did during my fifties.
- I love being a grandpa.
- I marvel at how my children are blossoming.
- Barbara and I love each other more and more. There seems to be no limit to how our love can grow.

Of course, this is also a season of loss. Skin continues to lose it's elasticity. Testosterone appears to be on the wane. It seems a bit harder to hear, and it takes just the right corrective lenses to see things right in front of my face. My thirst for adventure is greatly diminished. Comfort beckons seductively.

I have finally learned enough to understand how small my store of knowledge is and how vast is the potential to learn more.

As much as I love knowledge, I have come to prize wisdom even more.

I am delightfully near the end of my life on earth. As always, the day of my death may be today, or it may be decades in the future. However, the end is more plainly in view than ever before.

I am here as planned by God. But this is not my home.

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

The $100 computer for $100




So far the one hundred dollar computer intiative is stuck making two hundred dollar computers with a black and white screen.

However, $20 cell phones are all over the developing world. They aren't capable of doing a lot of the things that would be useful in education. But how much might it cost to upgrade them instead of creating a whole new creature.

Smart phones seem to do most of what a teacher would want for the class. Probably more.


Were one to shrink the memory some, make it a 1.5 pixel camera instead of five, and use a keyboard only instead of a touch screen, and a few other cost reduction measures, one could be within spitting distance of the $100 computer. Follow display and memory costs down the cost curve in 2011 and 2012 and I'm guessing that one would not even have to spit very far.

Volume is also a big factor. Here the third world model could piggyback of the sort of volumes that smartphones are enjoying.

We need to break the paradigm of phone vs computer and realize that what we have are less capable computers and more capable computers. All networked via LAN, WiFi, or cell signal.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Ponzi and the Pyramids

We are flawed.  Those flaws result in a variety of aberrations that recur over the centuries.  Specifics may differ but the fundamentals are the same.  Greed drives certain investment schemes that are doomed  from their inception.  It is greed that enables us to overlook the clear evidence of the coming collapse.  It is also greed that motivates us to do our best to saddle someone else with the losses when the collapse does occur.

Decades ago, a friend,.  Jane*, asked my opinion of a proposal made to her.  At a gathering in Bob's home, a group of friends, acquaintances, and strangers listened to a speaker who offered them the opportunity to rapidly turn a $1000 investment into $64,000.  The speaker made it clear  that the 6400% return on investment could be theirs in a few months if they were spend a few hours each week simply sharing the good news about this investment with friends, family, co-workers, and others.

With some effort, I was able to convince Jane that the scheme was impossible.  She decided not to invest.  At least one of Jane's friends stopped speaking to her. She was frustrated that Jane would not participate. Other friends railed at her for being foolish to pass up such an opportunity.

To convince Jane that the scheme wouldn't work (for most of the participants).  I drew a graphic similar to this pyramid.

Illustration credit:  public domain, created by U.S. goverment

The pyramid shows that if each participant is able to find six new investors,  the total number of investors will soon exceed the total population of the world  Of course the number of willing investors would have been exceeded long before that.  Once no new investors can be recruited, the participants who joined in the last few levels of the pyramid all lose their money.  More than 90% of the participants will lose their money.

Jane was no math whiz, but she got the general idea. However, I was shocked to learn that among my coworkers, folks like Jim were participating. Jim has an advanced degree in engineering.  At that time he was the manager for a group of dozens of professionals.  He was responsible for budget management and profit and loss for an entire product line at a major electronics corporation.  Only God knows Jim's heart, but from what I knew of him, he was an honest man.  Yet somehow, he was helping to build the pyramid when a few simple calculations could reveal that it was doomed to failure.

I don't know if Jim  lost money.  Once a pyramid collapses, virtually none of the participants will talk about it.  The minority who actually made money fear the wrath of those who did not.  Those who lost are embarrassed by their gullibility.  There is an additional incentive to stay quiet: the entire scheme is illegal.

There are a many variants of the basic pyramid.  They have a few things in common.  Only the very earliest participants have a shot at making a profit.  New recruits are always told that they are "getting in early".  The fact that most participants will lose their money is denied, ignored, or said to be irrelevant because "we are getting in early".

Pyramid schemes are illegal.  To circumvent that difficulty, the scam is presented as a "multilevel marketing opportunity".  As with the pyramid, there an initial investment is required.  The participants are told to sell a product or service and keep a small profit from each sale.  If it stopped there, the opportunity to make money would vary depending on the skill of each new sales person, the desirability of the product or service, the size of the market and so on.  It is the multilevel aspect that should raise suspicion. In addition to selling products or services, each participant is exhorted to recruit a next level of participants who will also sell.  The person who successfully recruits some number of participants in the next level, receives either a cash bonus or a cash flow created from a small percentage of that next level's sales.  Every level is expected to recruit the members of a next level.  As with the pure pyramid, the number of participants soon swells beyond anything sustainable.
The majority of players lose their investment.  There are attempts to make multilevel marketing illegal in case where it is clear that the major incentive is recruiting new members.  However, the gray zone is large enough to house any number of such schemes. Long distance phone cards. Household products.  Dietary supplements.  Those are but a few of the items pushed in multilevel marketing.

Ponzi schemes are a variant where a small number of people benefit a lot by convincing many other folks to trust them with their money.  The return on investment offered ranges from very high to just consistently better than that available from legitimate investments.  Participants are allowed to withdraw earnings on their investment.  But the supposed earnings are simply cash extracted from new participants. Eventually the folks running the Ponzi scheme are unable to attract enough new investors to sustain the sham.  A spectacular recent example was the investment firm run by Bernie Madoff. Madoff's scam cost investors tens of billions of dollars. The phony investment firm existed for decades and brought great wealth to Madoff and a few others. The majority of investors lost all that they had invested as well as large illusory gains.

For most of us, earning money is arduous.  Saving requires discipline.  Investments entail risk.  Any offer that purports to eliminate even one of those barriers to wealth should be highly suspect.  You can bank on that.



*All names fictitious with the exception of Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff.

Monday, February 08, 2010

Contracts, Warning Labels, and Liability Releases

Photo credit: Don't Do It from brettneilson

Addressing a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1931, Alfred Korzybski said "The map is not the territory." A map is, of course a piece of paper covered in lines and printing. When I hiked the back country, I fervently hoped that my topographical map was a faithful representation of the trails I followed and the hills I had to surmount. On at least one occasion, I followed a trail to the summit of the Squaw Valley ski area, only to learn that the return trail I had planned to use was on the other side of an unscalable cliff. I read the map well enough, but it did not include sufficient detail to alert me to a cliff that was undeniably there.

In the same sense that a map is not the territory, a written contract is not an agreement backed by commitment and good will among those who sign it. For millenniums the most solemn pacts, treaties, and contracts have been made and then broken. Nonetheless, we are using more and more contracts of greater and greater complexity. The contracts have become so complex and lengthy that even an expert lawyer has to study one long and hard to deliver an opinion on its applicability to a specific situation. Any two lawyers might easily disagree. Furthermore, contracts are often signed by folks without access to legal counsel. Worse still, contracts are often signed by at least one party who has not read it at all.

Software can be expensive to create and cheap to copy. Consequently, buyers are required to sign a legal agreement regarding making copies and terms of use. Very few of buyers read the terms of use. The percentage is likely so small as to approximate zero.

Consider the Microsoft Service Agreement. Those who buy Microsoft products must accept it. The agreement is 12 pages (6594 words) long. Plus the main agreement refers to ancillary agreements, such as the 6 page Microsoft Privacy Policy. The privacy policy references the Microsoft Anti-Spam Policy, a mere lightweight at 460 words. These agreements include far more than a prohibition on copying the software. There are limits on Microsoft's liability. There are conditions on how the software may be used.

Similar agreements are required by most companies who sell software.

There is no value in those agreements. U.S. software is presumed to be copyrighted once it is written. Besides, what sense does it make to require someone to indicate agreement, when it is well known that they have virtually no knowledge of what they are signing.

The same applies to the "liability releases" that we sign continually. My sons loved paint ball competitions. To enable them to participate, I sometimes signed releases that said I couldn't sue the paint ball range, even if they harmed my son on purpose! That sort of release would be useless in court. We cannot sign away another parties's responsibility to take reasonable safety precautions.

Whether or not an agreement is required, warning labels proliferate. There are incredibly stupid warnings such as "Do Not Place Feet or Hands Under Mower Deck". We see coffee cups with the warning: "This Coffee Is Hot". Many common objects are covered with various warnings, and even if the object cannot support the labels, the same nonsense is included in owners manuals.

Contracts can be a valuable way to insure that the parties involved have carefully considered what they are agreeing to. However, our current plethora of boiler plate contracts, labels, and liability releases have become as ridiculous wall paper covered in print saying "running into this wall at high speed may result in injuries".

Legalese nonsense will continue to proliferate until a few brave citizens or companies dare to do business without it.

Meanwhile, please be aware that reading these blog posts can result in eyestrain, headache, blurred vision, and somnolence. Consult with your health professional immediately if you experience any discomfort whatsoever.


Popular Delusions and Madness Revisted

Photo Credit: Nazi Rally, Nuremberg 1934




Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, was written by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, and first published in 1841. I highly recommend it. I confess, however, that certain aspects of the book are deeply disturbing. The book includes a selection of investment bubbles which resemble the Enron, Dot Com, and Credit Default Swap stories of our era. Mackay confirms that the madness has existed for centuries. The book is not limited to financial follies. Alchemy, witch hunting, and the Crusades, to name just a few, reveal that the delusions crop up in every arena: science, spirituality, and affairs of state.

Since the second and final edition of Mackay's book was published in 1853, humans have had an additional 16 or 17 decades to devise new, yet eerily similar, schemes for bring about financial ruin, persecution of innocents, and world wide religious wars.

In future posts, I will examine delusions prominent in the second half of the 19th century and the entire 20th century. As for the 21st, although I see a number of likely candidates, it is probably too early to document our current delusions.