"To see a world in a grain of sand,And a heaven in a wild flower,Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,And eternity in an hour"
from Auguries of Innocence
by William Blake
I spent a little time trying to figure out how much computers have changed since I was born in 1950. That was right about when the first commercial version of an electronic computer was developed.
It was roughly the size of a cargo container and cost about $10 million in today's dollars..
Today, all the circuits in that 1950 computer would fit into something roughly the size of a grain of rice which can be produced for around one penny.
Of course, the speed at which the circuits operated would be different. The grain of rice would do math approximately 1 million times faster.
Can computers keep getting faster? Most people think so. In fact, many people think they will get faster faster:
The Law of Accelerating Returns
by
Ray Kurzweil
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).
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2 comments:
Sadly haven grown up in the age of computers I still fall by the wayside in terms of comparative knowledge of my peers. I am constantly teetering between delight and apprehension when it comes to our many advances. Due to the nature of the beast people seem to be closer to their Ipods than their Ifriends, and the future of human interaction worries me. Plus I saw Terminator, I know how this thing ends.
Craziness! Boggles my brain.
I can only image what it will be like when Jude and Selah are teaching me how to use "the next new thing"!
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